China Will Reach Peak Emissions by 2030

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China is one of the most polluting countries. It is now a fact, confirmed every year by the numerous reports compiled by international think tanks.

The latest one comes from CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air), an independent Finnish research organization that studies trends, causes and the impact of air pollution on health. The document, titled “China’s Climate Transition Outlook 2023”, explains that the country will reach peak CO2 emissions very soon.

Very soon

According to the study, China will reach the peak of its environmental emissions before 2030, that is to say in the coming years. For experts, this is rather positive, but it contrasts sharply with the many doubts about the country’s capacity to restrict the increase in its emissions before the peak.

For the think tank, determining the precise year of the peak therefore remains impossible, but according to the majority of 89 experts interviewed, it could be a year before 2025so well before the end of the decade.

Polestar 4 manufactured in China

The Polestar 4 production plant in China

The reasons for this anticipation of the timetable are explained and lie mainly in the fact that the country currently emphasizes renewable energies. It continues to approve the opening of new coal-fired power plants, to meet the growing demand for electricity in the region, mainly to supply the industries.

Some of the factory’s most important production facilities in the world are located in this same territory, including with regard to cars and related components.

The BMW iX3 production plant

Doubts

The various experts interviewed by CREA not only explained the problem but also expressed doubts indispensable on China itself and its strategy of controversial reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The first of these is precisely the uncertain capacity to respect the commitments taken for 2030 and 2060 (-65% compared to 2005 levels for the first stage and carbon neutrality for the second); the second concerns the maximum value expected over the decade.

In the perspective of the COP28 in Dubai, scheduled for November 30 to December 12, 2023, as mentioned by Reuters, it will be very important to discuss China’s reduced willingness to accept a phase-out of fossil fuels.

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